The Asain Finacial Crisis Essays - Foreign Exchange Market

The Asain Finacial Crisis The Asain Finacial Crisis The beginning of the Asian financial crisis can be traced back to 2 July 1997. That was the day the Thai Government announced a managed float of the Baht and called on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 'technical assistance'. That day the Baht fell around 20 per cent against the $US. This became the trigger for the Asian currency crisis. Within the week the Philippines and Malaysian Governments were heavily intervening to defend their currencies. While Indonesia intervened and also allowed the currency to move in a widened trading range a sort of a float but with a floor below which the monetary authority acts to defend the currency against further falls. By the end of the month there was a 'currency meltdown' during which the Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir attacked 'rogue speculators' and named the notorious speculator and hedge fund manager, George Soros, as being personally responsible for the fall in value of the ringgit. Soon other East Asian economies became involved, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and others to varying degrees. Stock and property markets were also feeling the pressure though the declines in stock prices tended to show a less volatile but nevertheless downward trend over most of 1997. By 27 October the crisis had had a world wide impact, on that day provoking a massive response on Wall Street with the Dow Jones industrial average falling by 554.26 or 7.18 per cent, its biggest point fall in history, causing stock exchange officials to suspend trading. Countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines have embraced an unusual policy combination of liberalisation of controls on flows of financial capital on the one hand, and quasi-fixed/ heavily managed exchange rate systems on the other. These exchange rate systems have been operated largely through linkages with the United States (US) dollar as their anchor. (1) Such external policy mixes are only sustainable in the longer term if there is close harmonisation of economic/ financial policies and conditions with those of the anchor country (in this case, the United States). Otherwise, establishing capital flows will inevitably undermine the exchange rate. Rather than harmonisation, there seems to have actually been increased economic and financial divergence with the US, especially in terms of current account deficits, inflation and interest rates. These increasing disparities have prompted global (and local) financial interests to speculate against the administered exchange rate linkages, i.e. speculative pressure mounted that the monetary authorities in these countries would not be able to hold their exchange rate links. In most cases, such financial speculation has been of sufficient magnitude to actually provoke the collapse of the administered exchange rate links, in the manner of 'self fulfilling' prophecies. Defence of the exchange rate through the use of foreign exchange reserves and higher interest rates proved to be insufficient. (2) The result has been large devaluation's of the exchange rates of these countries, especially against the US dollar. Large interest rate increases to support the exchange rates at their new lower levels (to prevent wholesale over reaction and collapse in foreign exchange markets and to help contain the strong inflationary forces set in motion); and extra restrictions in fiscal policy. Designed to rise national saving, contain domestic spending and reassure foreign investors and international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Figure 1 shows the magnitude of this devaluation's. The IMF had arranged conditional financial support packages for Thailand and Indonesia. (3) Financial support is provided in exchange for (on condition of) economic policy reforms which, it is argued, will encourage economic recovery and help prevent a recurrence of the turmoil these countries are now experiencing. In the case of Australia, help to Thailand has taken the form of a 'currency swap' where Australia's US dollar assets of up to $1 billion were exchanged for Thai Baht, with an agreement that the reverse exchange would occur at a future point in time. These financial crises have also provoked substantial falls in the stock markets of these countries and in other parts of Asia. (They also contributed to stock market falls around the world). Foreign investor funds would have been initially withdrawn as exchange rate speculation mounted, and this would have partly taken the form of a sell off of foreign-owned stock. As well, much higher interest rates (both before and after the currency devaluation's) encourage flows of funds out of shares and into loan/ debt-type assets. In turn, higher interest rates and lower exchange rates have substantially increased the rate of collapse/ bankruptcy of businesses operating in highly leveraged sectors (especially where loan contracts were written in foreign

Criminology Research Paper essays

Criminology Research Paper essays According to The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, human sex trafficking, not far behind the illegal drug-trade, has become the second fastest increasing criminal industry in todays world. This type of slavery has been traced back to the ancient Mesopotamian and Mediterranean civilizations and has continued to grow. What is human sex trafficking? Commonly referred to as "modern-day slavery, its the recruitment, harboring, transportation, provision, or obtaining of a person for the purpose of a commercial sex act. This horrific yet ever-increasing issue is one that desperately needs to end quickly, since each day thousands of innocent children around the world are losing their freedom to this barbaric lifestyle. First, Ill start with some statistics. In an article written by Initiative against Sexual Trafficking, it is estimated that somewhere between 700,000 and four million women, children and men are trafficked each year, and no region is unaffected. An estimated two million children, the majority of them girls, are sexually exploited in the multi-billion dollar commercial sex industry. Around half of trafficking victims in the world are under the age of eighteen. Sixty-eight percent of female sex trafficking victims meet the clinical criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder, and more than two-thirds of sex trafficked children suffer additional abuse at the hands of their traffickers. Trafficked children are significantly more likely to develop mental health problems, abuse substances, engage in prostitution as adults, and either commit or be victimized by violent crimes later in life. Women who have been trafficked for the purpose of sexual exploitation experience a significantly higher rate of HIV and other STDs, tuberculosis, and permanent damage to their reproductive systems.(UNICEF). One would think with such disturbin...

The role of the UN during the could war Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The role of the UN during the could war - Essay Example mandate it was bestowed, Krasno (4) argues that the United States Charter allocated more power to five major states, which were further given veto powers and permanent representation in what was known as the upper chamber where exclusive jurisdiction were taken into consideration. Additionally, there were six nonpermanent members who later increased to ten. As such, the charter principle of sovereign equality expected all members to abstain in their international relations from threat or forceful use against territorial integrity or any state political independence. Thus, the United Nations issued the Security Council with the responsibility of ensuring that peace and security was maintained internationally (Krasno 5). Importantly, the United Nations first role during the Cold war happened in Korea when the Korean peninsula was divided through the occupation of the Soviet occupied territory in the Northern part while the Southern part was taken over by the United States. According to Sachleben (36) the state of unrest was thought to be between Communist and non communist states, and as such the United Nations was compelled to provide international legitimacy to the United States reaction on Korean peninsula although president Truman was determined to counter the threat until 1953 when the peace was finally restored. Similarly, the United Nations was engaged in the role of ensuring that Soviet Union was not involved in the unrest in Congo after the killing of the Secretary- General Dag Hammarskjold through a plane crash. During this unrest, there was conflict between the western powers and the then President Kasavubu who was supported by the United Nations through their peace keeping mandate (Downs 14). It is worth noting that the unrest in Korea and Congo were perfect examples of how the anticipated roles of the United Nations were influenced by the East- West divisions. As such, critics have argued that it is highly likely that the United

Salvador Dali and Surrealism Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Salvador Dali and Surrealism - Research Paper Example The paper "Salvador Dali and Surrealism" highlights the meaning of Salvador Dali's art and his influence in surrealism. Salvador Dali is one of the greatest abstract artists of all periods. The Persistence of Memory is considered as the masterpiece of Salvador Dali. Salvador Dali is a well known Surrealist artist. Surrealism is a typical artistic movement that made researchers, thinkers and artists explore the expression of the unconscious. Surrealism attempted to establish a new social order, giving a new definition for mankind. Surrealism is an artistic style and a cultural movement. It makes use of the visual imagery hidden in the subconscious mind to prepare art works that is not associated with logical comprehensibility. Surrealism is related to the psychoanalytical works of Sigmund Freud and Jung. Giorgio de Chirico, Renà © Magritte and Man Ray are few of the famous artists who were part of the Surrealist movement. Salvador Dali is the advocate of Surrealism. His works like Th e Persistence of Time and Dream Caused by the Flight of a Bee Around a Pomegranate a Second Before Awakening are typical examples of his works. The Persistence of Time is a celebrated painting of Salvador Dali. This seminal work of surrealistic art was created by Dali in 1931. The Persistence of Time is deemed as one of the most recognizable icon of the Surrealist movement. This painting is an excellent exhibition of the artist’s deep thoughts on hardness and softness, which was the topic of his works during those periods.

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS LAW Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS LAW - Research Paper Example Alongside this matter is the important consideration of the costs entailed in doing business in the Russian Federation. Possible Legal Risks Involved There are several legal issues, some of which take the form of risks, involved when entering a foreign market. Legal issues involved laws that affect the conduct of a particular business in a particular place. Laws that will be involved in conducting a business in Russia will be, necessarily, Russian commercial laws, international trade laws and international sales transactions and regulations. The risk, however, in conducting a business in a foreign state can be categorised into the following: effectiveness of the judiciary; rule of law; risk of contract repudiation; corruption, and; risk of expropriation.1 It is best to conduct business in a country that has a stable political condition and is known as business friendly. Although there is always risk, political risks of countries vary in degrees. Political risk is defined as â€Å"ri sk of loss when investing in a given country caused by changes in a country’s political structure or policies such as tax laws, tariffs, expropriation of assets or restriction in repatriation of assets.†2 Relevant to this discussion is the case of RosInvestCo UK Ltd v Russian Federation3 where a UK company has brought arbitration proceedings against the Russian Federation for invalid expropriation, which is contrary to the UK-Russian BIT. This case is thoroughly discussed on the UK-Russian BIT paragraph. In weighing the political stability of a country, its history might provide a good indicator of such a risk as countries with a history of stability and consistency are more likely to be less risky than those with opposing history.4 Unfortunately, Russia does not have a history of stability and consistency considering the number of political disarray it had in the past. The Best Form of Corporate Entity to Take There are, at least, four ways by which the Ultra-Educators Software Limited may engage in the business of selling chocolates in Russia. One is by selling directly by establishing its own branch or subsidiary; two, through retailers; three, through an intermediary or distributor, and; four, through a representative or agent company.5 Each of these methods has its own advantages and disadvantages. In making decisions about this matter, the following must be considered: the financial strength of Ultra-Educators; its connections; extent of its business commitments, and; the present state of its personnel, equipment, and status.6 If the Company intends to sell directly, it must set up an entity in Russia that will directly take charge of the business of selling the chocolates that the Company will be exporting to that country. It can either set up a branch or a subsidiary. A branch is a part or division of a company whilst a subsidiary is a separate entity independent from the company. Thus, the liability of a branch is that also of the main co mpany, but not that of the subsidiary because it is deemed separate from the company.7 Moreover, if the branch has taxes owing to it by virtue of the business it is conducting in the foreign state, the main company is liable for such taxes. This is not so in the case of the subsidiary.8

Growth In The Sector Of Social Networking Media Essay

Growth In The Sector Of Social Networking Media Essay Social networking can be described as the art of keeping in touch with friends and relatives through social Media. Social networking came to be with the introduction of Facebook amongst other social sites. For years now, there has been tremendous growth in the sector of social networking. Like we all know, any changes in the course of our lives will affect us in different ways. The effects of social networking are important to me personally as it will help me understand it in a broad perspective. I will be able to fully research on the possible future effects that come with the development of social networking. I will also be able to expound more on what the other research have explored on the effects of social networking. As much as I will contribute to the study of the effects of social networking, I will also gain from it by learning on what others had to say. The study will also help others in knowing what they are getting into when they register onto social network sites. What are the positives they stand to gain and what are the negatives to be on the look out for? How well can they be able to control their use of social networking in order to benefit fully from them? Should they embrace the wave of social networking fully or take precaution measures? These are some of the questions that the study will help answer to the readers of this report. The study will mostly target individuals who use social networking sites on daily basis. The individuals will be grouped in accordance to age and current occupation. It will also take into consideration individuals who are still in school. The study will be conducted within a period of one month so as to fully establish the effects of social networking. The time duration is ideal because it is neither too short nor too long. It is suitable for effective results that are up-to-date. Through the study, I hope to establish if there are more positive than negative effects of social networking. How we can all benefit from social networking simply because it is what everyone including companies are doing. I hope to find if we can entirely do away with social networking and how it will affect us should we take that path. The main sections of this paper are the literature review, the findings of the study, the conclusion and the recommendations for the study. 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW In this chapter, the effects of social networking are analyzed in depth. It will focus mainly on three variables that are mostly affected by social networking i.e. professionalism, social life and education. This paper only focuses on the three as these are the key area of the study. Social networking services can be described as online services that are only established to bring people closer together in terms of creating relations and sharing a common interest (Woessner, 2011). Social networking began to grow with the advance revelation of computers and easy access to the internet (Jue, Marr Kassotakis, 2009). Usenet and LISTSERV are some of the first online services to offer a better platform for social networking sites to expand (Jue, Marr Kassotakis, 2009). As the demand for social sites increased, more social sites were launched into the market as more and more online service providers developed. It was only until the years 19954 that the first social networking site was registered in the World Wide Web (WWW). These sites included Geocities, Theglobe.com and tripod. These sites mainly focused on establishing chat rooms and bring people closer together regardless of their geographical background (Papacharissi, 2010). Different communities see this as an opportunity that they should tap into. A good example of such communities with people who shared the same interests or background was Classmates.com. However, this social site took the approach of linking people together through the use of email address. As time progressed, the use of profiles was to be introduced in the late 1990s. User profiles just like the name suggest allow users to compile the list of friends they wish to have on their social page (Papacharissi, 2010). This new development in social networking encourages the launch of social sites such as SixDegrees.com, Hub Culture, and Makeoutclub.com amongst others. This was to mark the beginning of a new revolution in the social networking market. By the year 2000, other social network sites were being introduced almost on annual basis. This saw the increase in the number of people registering as well as an increase in competition of the site owners. By the year 2005, MySpace was the number one ranked social site in the US. All this was to change with the launch of Facebook in the year 2004. It is currently the largest social networking site in the world. The study on the effects of social networking started immediately after the launch and establishment of Facebook. This is because no social site has been able to revolutionize the world the way Facebook has. It simply took the world by storm as it had everyone registering on it (Papacharissi, 2010). The study was first conducted as certain effects become noticeable thus the need to explore on them. We can therefore say that social networking can have either a positive or negative effect on its users. On the level of professionalism, previous studies noted that the effects of social networking during work hours brought about more negative effects than the positives. The level of productivity simply went a notch lower as more employees spent their time on social sites (Woessner, 2011). With the free and easy access to the internet while at the work place, employees did and site find it cheap to access their social pages while at work. With more employees performing poorly, employers were forced to take drastic measures to ensure that things got back to normal. Most firms had to block and declare the use of social networking sites during working hours as illegal. A study conducted by HCL Technologies in the year 2011 show that an entire 50% of British employers ban the use of social sites at work (Jue, Marr Kassotakis, 2009). As much as social networking sites have proved through past studies that they do slow down employees, productivity, study also show that they can be beneficial. Recent studies prove that marketing through social sites can be very effective to a firm. With a wide audience to gain access to the information that you have to sell in a click of a button; social networking is definitely the way to go in terms of marketing (Woessner, 2011). Adverts are designed to help create awareness and market for your products and services. Previous scholars have shown beyond reasonable doubt that social networking sites can be the best marketing ground for any product and or service. With a wide and cheap way of creating awareness, all you need is to have as many people see what you are marketing. The social media is often flocked with individuals at any given time; your advert will never go unnoticed (Jue, Marr Kassotakis, 2009). Once social life has also been a keen past study as far as the effects of social networking are concerned. Your social life matters a lot simply because this is how you relate to the people around you. Do you have friends or are you always alone. Studies have shown that social networking sites can either help create or damage your social life. You want to make and keep in touch with your friends, then social sites is the answer. On average basis, you will remember to keep in touch with everyone on your phone book. However, you can be updated on what is happening in their lives through social networking (Papacharissi, 2010) Recent studies show that people do lie more often on the information they exchange on social networking sites. You want people to think that your life is amazing and therefore you lie about almost everything (Parrack, 2012). One of the major effects of social networking in regards to ones social life is the inability to keep up with the lies. Eventually the truth does come out at some point in time thus crushing the person. With a low self esteem and the truth finally out, people find it hard to go back to their normal lives (Papacharissi, 2010). Studies do show that most people who suffer this kind of fate tend to be depressed and withdrawn from social activities. They therefore might need psychological help in order to be able to interact freely with people. The effect of social networking on education has probably the most studied topic on the effects of social networking as a whole. Previous studies in relation to education and social networking were once seen as a hindrance in the development of ones education (Dunn, 2011). This is because most of the social sites users and especially on Facebook and Twitter are still of school going age on different levels. Social networking was proven to affect the grades of students as they tend to perform poorly by spending most of their time socializing on the sites. The studentsà ¢Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢ education almost came to a compromise with the introduction of current and easy to access social sites especially through their mobile phones (Dunn, 2011)The only way to ensure that education came first to social networking was to establish ways of prohibiting social sites while at school (Parrack, 2012). As much as social networking was considered to be a hindrance in the development of education, past studies have also shown that it can be helpful in developing technical skills amongst other. As students interact with each other on the social sites, there is a lot more they share than the events of their day to day activities. Recent studies have shown that students are now using social networking sites to explore the talents they have (Dunn, 2011). There is more than what meets the eye in relation to students and social sites. This has grown to be the platform of interaction to discuss other significant matters than the social ones (Parrack, 2012). Just like in the professional environment, students are now putting into good use the positive effects that come with social networking. The study on the effects of social networking recently took a new twist. Researchers now claim that social networking sites offer some of the best grounds to carry out research work. Most of the research work is now targeting social networking sites as it is easier to find the kind of population target that you desire (Parrack, 2012). With this recent development, we can add to the existing effects of social networking as a whole. As for the future concerns of the effects of social networking, the trend shows that there will be more emerging positive effects than negatives. This is the belief of many simply because at first there were more negatives than positives but this is slowly changing. We are yet to discover other unhidden positive effects that the social sites have to offer (Parrack, 2012). The more we expand our features and social networking uses, the more we stand to benefit from them. The advantage of carrying out this research study is to help understand the past studies and explore more on the future possible effects. The advantage of carrying out this research will not only benefit me as an individual but the entire community as a whole. This study will go a long way in help solving current problems in relation to the effects of social networking. This study will also help future researcher to develop their past studies section as they explore its contents for reference. 3.0 METHODOLOGY This chapter describes the methodology used to collect data in establishing the possible effects of social networking. The method that the research chooses to use is interview. Interviews simply because it enables the research to get first hand answers as well as offer personal interaction with the interviewee (Creswell, 2008). The use of interviews as a research method has been there since time memorial and it has proven to offer so much. The interviewer will be able to capture the non spoken responses of the interviewee such as gestures and facial expressions. In addition to that, interviews are ideal when it comes to clear explanations from either party of the interview (Creswell, 2008). The data will be collected in different venues so as to target a wider perspective of the population. Schools, offices and public places such as parks will be the targeted locations for this research. This is to enable to get as many different individuals for the research. When your targeted population is wide, you stand to benefit from unbiased results (Kumar, 2010). The more people the research will cover from different grounds, the more diverse the data collected will be. The research will focus on interview a population target between the ages of 15-40. This is because this is the ideal age that frequently uses social networking for various reasons. The age limit is that low as social networking attracts not only the adults but teenagers as well. Research has shown that a growing percentage of social networking users are mainly below the ages of eighteen. As for the age maximum age, the research will better portray the mature uses at that particular age. The data collect in the span of one month i.e. the duration period of the research, will first be edited before it is interpreted. Data editing allows for the clarity and the completion of information collected. Once editing is done, the information will be presented in the form of tables and graphs for the quantitative information. As for the qualitative, it will be presented in a descriptive manner. This is because not all information gathered can be presented in a quantitative manner. The research expects to find more positive effects of social networking than negatives. 4.0 FINDINGS This chapter describes the presentation of the finding obtained through the interview process. The use of graphs will present the quantitative while descriptive form will present the qualitative information. 4.1 Quantitative analysis 4.1.1 Respond rate Out of the 200 target population to be interviewed, only 160 had a successful interview. This makes the respond rate 80% Category Sample size Actual respond percentage 15-25 100 90 45 25-40 100 70 35 totals 200 160 80 Source Author (2012) 4.1.2Effects on professionalism Category response percentage Positive 110 68.75 Negative 50 31.25 Total 160 100 Source Author (2012) 4.1.3 Effects on social life Category response percentage Positive 150 94 Negative 10 6 Totals 160 100 Source Author (2012) 4.1.4 Effect on education Category response percentage Positive 90 56 Negative 70 44 Totals 160 100 Source Author (2012) 4.2 Qualitative analysis From the research analysis majority of the individuals who are employed or self employed find social networking to be an added advantage to their careers. The respondents agree that social networking helps them to market their goods and services in a cheap and effective way. They point out that majority of firms now have profile pages in most of the social networking sites as an easier way for them to interact with clients. Majority of the respondents find social networking to help them with their social life. It is a simply way of keeping in touch with your friends on regular basis without necessarily having to meet with them. Respondents also find it easier to make new friends on social sites through old friends. Reuniting lost friends also top the list of some of the positive effects of social networking. Only a small percentage finds social networking to ruin or be a hindrance to their social life Only a few out of the possible half way mark of the respondents find social networking to be beneficial in regards to education. They do agree that social sites are currently trending and they can be used in a positive manner. This group of respondents acknowledges the fact that social sites can be ideal grounds for research work. The rest of the respondents simply find social networking to be a fail in regards to education. They see no positive reactions between education and social sites. 5.0 CONCLUSION The main objective of this research was to highlight the effects of social networking. Majority of the respondents agree that there are now more positive effects than negative effects. Majority of the respondents agree on positive effects for the three areas tested i.e. professionalism, social life and education. From the results, it is clear that the norm of having more negative effects than positive effects of social networking is slowly changing. As much as the study was a success, if I was to do it again, the one thing I would change is the number of variables under study. Social networking does not only affect our lives in the three variables highlighted for this study. There are so many other ways in which social networking affects us. For future researchers, it is highly encouraged to explore areas such as the effects of social networking in regards to building skills, creating employment opportunities, reducing crime rates amongst others. The study on the effects of social networking was a success as I found what I expected. At the beginning of the study, I expected to find an increase in positive effects and a decrease in the negatives. From the results, it is clear that majority of people now benefit from social networking in a positive manner. The complaints as to how negative social sites can be are slowly dying as people now start acknowledging the better side of social networking. Reference Creswell, J. (2008). Research design: A qualitative, quantitative, and mixed method approaches. New York: Sage Publications Ltd. Dunn, J. (2011, June 11). The 10 best and worst ways social media impacts education. Retrieved from http://edudemic.com/2011/07/social-media-education/ Jue, A., Marr, J., Kassotakis, M. (2009). Social media at work: How networking tools propel organizational performance. California: Jossey-Bass. Kumar, R. (2010). Research methodology: A step-by-step guide for beginners. New York: Sage Publications Ltd. Papacharissi, Z. (2010). A networked self: Identity, community, and culture on social network sites. New York: Routledge. Parrack, D. (2012, April 19). The positive impact of social networking sites on society [opinion]. Retrieved from http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/positive-impact-social-networking-sites-society-opinion/ Woessner, S. (2011). Increase online sales through viral social networking: How to build your web site traffic and online sales using Facebook, Twitter, and Linkedin in just 15 steps. Florida: Atlantic Publishing Group Inc.

Decision-Making Models Essay -- Decision-Making Model Analysis

Decision-Making Models General assumptions create the foundation of a person's reasoning. Imperfections with a supposition can create the opportunity for a skewed perspective in a person's reasoning process (Paul & Elder, 2002). The process of choosing one course of action over another is commonly known as decision making. Consciously or unconsciously, people make decisions on a daily basis founded on one or more of the various decision-making models (Sullivan, n.d.). This paper examines how I apply various decision-making models in the workplace to generate accurate workload estimations in my career. The Qualitative Choice Theory also known as analogous reasoning uses past experience to help an individual make decisions. A resolution is derived by looking at what has occurred historically and basing the decision on the expected outcome (Arsham, 1994). The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) methodology is a decision-making model that uses a mathematical formula established on realistic, pessimistic, and optimistic estimates to provide an accurate estimate of the most likely amount of time to complete a project (â€Å"Critical path analysis & pert charts,† n.d.). Building on the analogous methodology, the parametric decision-making model looks at one small piece of a project, estimates the amount of time required to complete the particular section of the project, and multiplies the smaller piece times the number of total pieces (International Society of Parametric Analysts, 1999). The Monte Carlo simulation is a technique that makes use of computer models to aid in making decisions in intricate circumstances (Grambow, n.d.). My duties at work often require that I provide estimations for the level of effort required for projects I am working on and I employ all three of the aforementioned decision-making methodologies. More often than not, I rely on the analogous model drawing on my experience as a subject matter expert to create time estimates for small projects. Drawing on more than 5 years of programming experience, I am able create realistic estimates of the level of effort required to complete a small project. I use this methodology when asked to estimate simple text changes to the user interface for Web pages I maintain. For example, a client has just requested a change to the welcome page of his Web site and has committed to provide text... ...Retrieved June 20, 2005, from The University of Baltimore Web site: http://home.ubalt.edu/ ntsbarsh/opre640/partXIII.htm Bassham, G., Irwin, W., Nardone, H., & Wallace, J.M. (2002). Critical thinking [Electronic Version]. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill. Critical path analysis & pert charts. (n.d.). Retrieved June 21, 2005, from http://www.work911.com/cgi-bin/links/jump.cgi?ID=4532 International Society of Parametric Analysts. (1999). Parametric estimating initiative (pei) parametric estimating handbook: Company developed models (chap. 4). Retrieved June 20, 2005, from http://www.ispa-cost.org/PEIWeb/ch4.htm Grambo, M. (n.d.). Monte carlo analysis. Retrieved June 22, 2005, from The University of Scranton Web site: http://academic.uofs.edu/ faculty/gramborw/tumonte.htm Paul, R. & Elder, L. (2002). Critical thinking: Tools for taking charge of your professional and personal life [Electronic Version]. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Sullivan, M. (n.d.). Problem solving, decision making and critical thinking. Retrieved June 20, 2005, from Villanova University Web site: http://www52.homepage.villanova.edu/maureen.sullivan/ coursematerial/L&M_Notes/ProblemSolving.htm